The International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) recently released a report predicting that the global 8-inch and 12-inch wafer shipments will increase by 5.2% and 9.9% in 2022, respectively, and 0.8% and 2.7% in 2023, which are significantly lower than foundry 10-15%, 8-10% expected.
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In this regard, Lu Xingzhi, a well-known semiconductor analyst, gave three points of analysis:
- The foundry wafer capacity expansion is insufficient, so it is speculated that there may still be room for price increases;
- Including Intel, Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Texas Instruments, STMicroelectronics, NXP, and other large IDM factories, as well as some small IDM factories, shipments and expansion may still be far less than foundries;
- Comparing SEMI’s forecast of 1-3% growth in 2023, and TSMC’s expected revenue CAGR of 15-20% in the next few years in January, “I don’t know how much is the price increase caused by the change in product mix, how much is due to shipments.”
