According to TSMC’s information, the 3nm process will be produced in the second half of this year, but mass production will not be possible until next year, and the 2nm process will not be mass-produced until 2025. The VIP customers of these two generations of processes are Intel and Apple, who have high demand and are rich, is a priority customers of TSMC.
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If other semiconductor companies want to get 3nm and future 2nm production capacity, they will have to wait until Apple and Intel ship. Recently, digitime broke the news that companies such as AMD, NVIDIA, and MediaTek also hope to negotiate with TSMC on the issue of capacity allocation, but they have to arrive. Negotiations will not start until the end of 2023 or sometime in 2024. The first is the 3nm process, followed by the 2nm process, but it will definitely be much later than Apple and Intel.
Not to mention the farther 2nm, from the perspective of the 3nm process alone, if AMD wants to get TSMC’s production capacity allocation, it will be impossible in 2023. Even if it is possible to negotiate in 2024, the production will not be completed until the end of the year, and it is more likely to be in 2025.
From this point of view, in AMD’s next-generation products after 5nm Zen4, it is unlikely that Zen5 will go directly to 3nm unless AMD can wait until the end of 2025 to release it, and Zen4 will fight three generations of Intel processors.
Therefore, it is more reasonable for Zen5 to continue to use TSMC ’s 5nm process. After all, there are many new things launched by Zen4. AMD will not be in a hurry to give up after only one generation. Zen2 to Zen3 are all 7nm processes, but Zen3 ’s architecture improvement is still great.
