According to the latest report, in the notebook processor supply chain, ABF carrier boards will be one of the specific components that will increase in shortage in 2022, which may lead to a tight supply of notebook processors and affect notebook shipments.
Moreover, ABF carrier boards have been in short supply for a long time, and manufacturers will give priority to providing capacity support to major suppliers of high-end HPC and server chips using advanced packaging processes, squeezing the supply of notebook processors.
According to Digitimes Research, a market survey agency, the proportion of ABF carrier boards shipped in server processors will increase significantly. By 2022, the supply gap of ABF carrier boards for notebook processors may expand to 5-15%.
In addition, according to research firm Aletheia Capital, the shipment rate of ABF carrier boards in server applications will rise from 15% in 2021 to 25% in 2022, and further rise to over 30% in 2023-2025. ABF for notebook and PC applications The carrier board shipment rate will drop from 44% in 2021 to 27% in 2025.
Furthermore, the server chip using advanced manufacturing and packaging processes will significantly increase the number of layers, area size, and circuit density of the ABF carrier board. The area of the ABF carrier board used to handle the new server CPU platforms such as Intel Sapphire Rapids and AMD Epyc Genoa will be at least 20% larger than the current processor, and the number of layers will increase by 2-4 layers.
At the same time, the specification upgrade will affect the yield rate of ABF carrier board manufacturing. The chip packaging technology currently used by packaging plants puts greater pressure on the yield rate of carrier board manufacturers. ABF was designed by manufacturers to handle new servers and HPC chips The carrier board usually has a yield rate of only 50% at the beginning.
The source said that the ABF carrier board capacity of IC carrier board manufacturers has been scheduled by major suppliers of high-end HPC and server chips in 2022 and beyond, and meeting the needs of suppliers is their top priority next year.
In view of this, the source pointed out that the notebook computer processor ABF carrier board shipments will be at a lower priority among the carrier board manufacturers, especially considering that the notebook computer market outlook is still uncertain, the notebook computer processor ABF The carrier board area is small, and it is difficult to ensure high capacity utilization.